Tense times on front lines of Jerusalem neighborhoods
JERUSALEM –French Hill is one of the neighborhoods begun soon after 1967 on land included in the enlargement of Jerusalem. Now there are about 8,000 residents, the large majority of whom are Jews. There are also Arab, East Asian, and other students from the nearby Hebrew University, and Arab families who are renters or home owners.
Isawiyya is a neighborhood across an empty field whose buildings begin about 200 meters from our apartment. It is one of the Arab neighborhoods that share with French HIll, Pisgat Zeev, and Neve Yaacov the northeastern sector of Jerusalem The 12-13,000 residents of Isawiyya pass through French Hill on their way elsewhere, and patronize the post office, bank, shops, parks and playing fields located here. Isawiyya is not a run down slum, but a substantial place with construction similar to that of Jewish neighborhoods. The cars that come from there resemble ours.
Construction freeze period will end during Sukkot
By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM–Sukkot begins on Wednesday evening. It may not amount to much in America, but it is a major event here. Religious Jews and some not so religious are building a sukkah (hut) in their yards or on their balconies, and the observant are acquiring an etrog (citrus with a bump), palm branch, myrtle, and willow branch. An acceptable set of the objects this year is going for the equivalent of US $6 to US $15. The especially well off who are willing to examine at length an etrog for imperfections will spend up to US $300 for one that meets all the specifications that their eyes can see.
The political significance of this holiday competes with the details of ritual. Almost all government offices, public institutions, and many companies shut down for the week. Like Passover, Sukkot is a time for vacation. The middle days of Sukkot and Passover, are not days when travel is forbidden, so the religious will be seeking space on the roads and at vacation spots. Politicians can move around without fear of violating any constituent’s sense of proper observance.
The airport will be jammed on the eve of Sukkot and its final day, and there is scant room left in the inns of the Galilee and other Israeli sites. The highly touted construction freeze in the Jewish settlements of the West Bank comes to an end in the middle of this, but there may not be anyone minding the store. Insofar as the religious settlers will be celebrating the holiday, they might not be home to supervise the Chinese, Romanians, legal and illegal Palestinians who do the work. Read more…
Looming expiration of building freeze a crisis for Mideast talks
JERUSALEM — The pressure is building, both on Israel and the Palestinians.
The immediate issue is the freeze on building in the settlements, set to expire in about a week.
Various Palestinians have said, time and again, that they would cease the peace talks if there is construction of even one building in the Jewish settlements.
The American President and Secretary of State have said on several occasions that it would be wise for Israel to extend the freeze on building in settlements as a gesture to the Palestinians in order keep the peace talks going.
The General Secretary of the United Nations has signed on to the campaign, along with the Chancellor of Germany. Read more…
Commentary: U.S. Mideast record not comforting close to the action
By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM–After doubtful claims of success in Iraq, and clearer failure in Afghanistan, the United States is tackling the problematical task of picking the good guys in Yemen.
Maybe not the good guys. Hopefully the best guys, or those who score least bad on the score of unreliability. Or more likely, those who are said to be reliable by Americans who may understand what is going on in that place.
Here as elsewhere, however, there is disagreement among the Americans who claim to know what can be done.
A few snippets that describe some of the problems:
“Opponents (of American military aid among American officials) . . . fear American weapons could be used against political enemies of President Ali Abdullah Saleh and provoke a backlash that could further destabilize the volatile, impoverished country.
The debate is unfolding as the administration reassesses how and when to use American missiles against suspected terrorists in Yemen following a botched strike in May. That attack, the fourth since December by the American military, killed a provincial deputy governor and set off tribal unrest.
Administration officials acknowledge that they are still trying to find the right balance between American strikes, military aid and development assistance — not only in Yemen, but in Pakistan, Somalia and other countries where Islamic extremist groups are operating. Read more…
Questions about Palestinian sincerity obstacles to Mideast peace
By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM–The conflict between Israel and Palestine is one of the most prominent of the world’s unsolved problems. The casualties are small in relation to what occurs wherever the United States military is directly involved. It is the location in the land considered holy by contending faiths, and the weight of Arab onlookers in international forums, that keeps this in the headlines.
Are we at the edge of a process that will solve this conflict?
Only time will tell.
Here I will focus on the complex political map of Israel, as I see it from public opinion surveys, media reports and commentators, and 35 years of talking to people with sharply different views.
There is a substantial portion of the population, perhaps a majority, willing to make substantial territorial concessions for “real peace.” However, a substantial number of people, perhaps as many as 100,000, are living on land that the national majority would concede. Some of those settlers are willing to move elsewhere, and some would jump at an attractive financial incentive, but many remember what happened when Israel removed its settlements from Gaza, and they are unwilling to move. Moreover, there is a substantial number of Israelis, including individuals who say they are willing to make substantial concessions, who express concern or major distrust about the willingness of Palestinians to do what it takes to assure “real peace.”
These “substantials” are vague, and do not fit together into something that we can interpret with a great deal of confidence.
Somewhat influenced, but also somewhat independent of public opinion, are policymakers with long experience in dealing with Palestinians, who are less than certain about the reliability of Palestinians. These include politicians and professionals in the military and civilian ministries. The politicians concerned about Palestinian reliability are not only members of right wing and centrist parties, but also those left of center. Knesset members of Labor and Meretz speak more often and more fully about the need to give up large portions of the West Bank. But some politicians on the left also indicate their concern about the intentions of Palestinians, especially those on the Islamic fringe. And the public has not shown a great deal of support for left of center politicians . Both Meretz and Labor are at historic low points in their Knesset representation.
Americans, Europeans, and the UN Secretary General are pressing Israeli leaders to make concessions that will keep alive the prospect of reaching agreement. Some are also pressing the Palestinians to show flexibility, and not to walk away at the first sign of disappointment.
The formats are not promising. The emphasis is on meetings between the most senior politicians, in the presence of senior politicians from other countries. It is not the setting for hammering out detailed agreements about land, water, defense, temporary or permanent borders, refugees, waste disposal, environmental protection, the transfer of individuals from Israeli administration and Israeli health insurance, and the content of Palestinian education (relevant to Israeli concerns about incitement). It is also not the setting for Israelis or Palestinians ratcheting down from often proclaimed demands. Transparency is fine, but agreements may only grow in the dim light of private meetings, with participants explaining later what they have given up in order to get what they obtained.
There is no end to the scenarios that the hopeful and doom sayers describe.
Many of them begin from the widespread pessimism about the partners, onlookers and outside troublemakers, and the contrasting demands that argue against success.
Already the fighters of Gaza have stepped up their rocket launchings in hopes of doing something that will hasten the end of the peace talks. So far the IDF has not responded with anything more than pin point reprisals, but no one should rule out another round of widespread destruction.
The hopeful pessimists of Israel, i.e., those who are pessimistic about the peace talks but otherwise hopeful, see a continuation of economic progress in the West Bank, a continued refrain from violence on the part of the Fatah government, and a gradual development of Palestinian society and economy in the West Bank alongside Israel. Those goodies may come along with continued Israeli restraints with respect to the extension of settlements, but that requires an added dose of optimism.
I have not noticed anyone who is optimistic about Gaza.
There are some who are pessimistic about peace talks, and pessimistic about the continued restraint from violence of West Bank Palestinians. Settlers and their friends, and some who are not their friends but see the settlers as something to reckon with, see periodic waves of violence on the West Bank, Israeli reprisals, and continued expansion of Israeli settlements. Their scenario extends to the eventual dominance of Israeli settlers throughout the West Bank, and a one-state solution between the Jordan and the Mediterranean.
This one-state scenario differs by 180 degrees from the one-state seen by those who see Palestinian gaining dominance via a demographic advantage.
The settlers are patient, and none of the adults I know assume that they will see the end of conflict. It will take time, perhaps several waves of Palestinian violence and Israeli destruction in response, a gradual tiring of international watchers and minders, the drying up of overseas Palestinians willing to invest time and again in something that is destroyed, and the continued outmigration of Palestinians.
I would not count on such a unfolding of events that depend on so many assumptions, but neither would I dismiss it out of hand. Settlers think about something like this scenario, and mainstream Israeli politicians are sufficiently concerned about the reliability of Palestinians so that they may avoid any wholesale movement of the settlers that would nip it in the bud.
Some of my American friends might view all of this as Israeli arrogance, and a refusal to make the agreements that everyone else sees as essential. Americans can do their best in places like Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and then leave when it is apparent that they cannot get what they want. They can soothe their national conscience by granting citizenship to the Vietnamese, Iraqis, and Afghans who succeed in leaving their countries.
Israel’s problems are closer. We are stuck with hostile neighbors, still being taught in their schools that we have no rights here. Israelis listen to a thoughtful President and leading Europeans, a Secretary of State who sometimes screeches, and overseas Jews who think about what is best for us. But Israelis have not the option of retreating to the other side of the world if their hopes turn bad.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University
Summer Time debate is another of Israel’s peculiarities
JERUSALEM–Lots of countries do something nutty. That’s a practice that does not make sense, but has the support of entrenched politicians and much of the public as “the way things are done.”
In Germany it is superhighways without speed limits. In the United States it is easy access to firearms. In Britain it is the definition of one’s body weight in stones.
In Israel it is what the locals call Summer Time, and what is known in the United States as Daylight Savings Time.
Israel’s nuttiness may not be as dangerous to life and limb as those of Germany and the United States, but it is no less nutty.
The deal is that Israeli Summer Time must end on the weekend before Yom Kippur. Advocates claim that it makes fasting easier, but skeptics note that the fast lasts 25 hours, whether from a clock hour later or earlier on one day to a later or earlier clock hour plus one hour on the next day.
Could the fast be easier when it begins at 5 PM and ends at 6 PM than when it begins as 6 PM and ends at 7 PM?
I know of no survey that answers that question. However, the ultra-Orthodox parties are insisting that it stay that way.
The coming Sabbath begins at 6:12 and ended at 7:27 in Jerusalem. Summer time ends between this coming Saturday and Sunday. The Yom Kippur fast should begin no later than 5:03 the following Frday and end no earlier than at 6:16 on Saturday. The times for other cities differ by a few minutes, and can be found on published calendars.
An industrialist, who may or may not be planning to fast, has begun to wage a campaign to do away with the nuttiness. He asserts that it costs money, puts Israel out of sync with its overseas markets and suppliers, and that he will order his company to stay on Summer Time until Europe makes its change at the end of October.
The head of the SHAS delegation in the Knesset and the Minister of Interior, Eli Yishai, is the man in charge of this, and he insists that Summer Time must end on the weekend before Yom Kippur. But whether he is serious or not, he is proposing a super-nuttiness: re-instituting Summer Time after Yom Kippur.
This would mean that Israelis would move their clocks back on the coming weekend, them move them ahead after Yom Kippur. Since the fast falls this year on Friday-Saturday, that would presumably mean that Israelis could be changing their clocks soon after breaking the fast. So far Yishai has not said when he would suggest going back again to Winter Time.
Insofar as there is less than a week to the scheduled end of Summer Time, Yishai’s super nuttiness probably won’t be vetted by the professionals in his ministry, formally proposed, debated, and voted on this year.
But maybe next year.
Doubtful.
There is only so much that the Israeli majority can demand from its minority of religious extremists. It is pressing hard, with tiny results, to induce ultra-Orthodox youth to spend a bit of time in the military; to end the rejection of Sephardi pupils by Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox schools; to facilitate the continuation of construction projects whenever there is a discovery of ancient bones that may be Jewish; and to insert courses in English, mathematics, science, and technology to the ultra-Orthodox curriculum.
No one should expect that the Education Ministry would try to impose on the ultra-Orthodox anything like evolution or sex education, and maybe not anything to do with biology, history, or social science.
Ultra-Orthodox kids are as bright as any. They begin school at the age of three, handle Aramaic as well as spoken and Biblical Hebrew (and the Ashkenazim Yiddish), and understand convoluted Talmudic logic by their teens, and can be taught to make a living doing computer programming.
Israel has been able to create technological colleges for ultra-Orthodox post-teens, with the young men separate from young women, but putting those subjects in the curriculum of most schools for ultra-Orthodox adolescents has so far eluded the Education Ministry or the Government.
Putting off the end of Summer Time until after Yom Kippur?
It’s less of a priority than the army, ethnic segregation, finding a solution for bones that may be Jewish, and the school curriculum.
One should not expect Israel to get to it in our life time.
In the event that this nuttiness may represent my last note of the year, let me wish you all that is good for the coming year, whenever it comes on your clocks this Wednesday evening.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University
Israelis jockey and make speeches as new peace talks approach
By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — As I was still wondering who I was early this morning, I heard the 6 o’clock news report that Rabbi Ovadia Yosef had used his weekly sermon to curse the Palestinians and wish an early death for their leaders. “Abu Mazan and all the other evil ones should perish. May the Lord strike them with a plague, them and all those Palestinians who do evil upon Israel.”
The followers of Rabbi Ovadia view him as a holy man and a genius on the law of Torah. He had a term as the Sephardi Chief Rabbi of Israel, was the creator of the ultra-Orthodox party SHAS, and remains its spiritual leader. The pious kiss his hands when they are fortunate enough to get close. Political leaders and those who aspire to leadership seek the opportunity to don skull caps and enter the Rabbi’s rooms for a conference and hopefully a blessing.
The Rabbi is about to celebrate his 90th birthday, and is inclined to murky and outlandish comments. Usually one of his handlers is quick to correct or explain something likely to embarrass the community. So far we have not heard from a handler on these comments, perhaps because they are close to the sentiments of other party leaders.
Some years ago Rabbi Ovadia staked out a position of accommodation with the Palestinians. In order to save Jewish lives, it would be appropriate to make territorial concessions. He has returned to that theme, but more often has expressed himself on the hawkish side of the spectrum. He condemned the withdrawal of settlements from Gaza. Eli Yishai, the leader of SHAS MKs and Minister of Interior, is one of the most outspoken members of the government expressing skepticism about the upcoming talks with the Palestinians, and supporting a resumption of building in Jewish settlements throughout the West Bank.
Explanations of SHAS’s move to the right include the wave of violence that began in 2000, and the recognition of their voters’ tendency to distrust Arab intentions. SHAS supporters tend to be working class Israelis from families that came from North Africa, with memories of Arab hostility and being forced from their homes.
If leaders do not follow their supporters, they risk the loss of leadership.
There is also the matter of housing. Ultra-Orthodox Jews have lots of children, who marry young and have lots of children. Land is limited and expensive in the established ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods of Jerusalem and Bnei Brak. When Rabbi Ovadia made his initial comments about territorial concessions to save Jewish lives, there were no ultra-Orthodox settlements in the West Bank. Now there is Betar Ilit and Modiin Ilit, each with tens of thousands of residents and more building underway. Ramat Shlomo is an ultra-Orthodox neighborhood in East Jerusalem where plans announced for further construction during Vice President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel upset the Obama administration.
There is pessimism in both Israeli and Palestinian communities in advance of the talks scheduled to be celebrated this week in Washington. 88 percent of the 1,751 people who have so far expressed themselves on a question asked by a popular Hebrew language internet site selected, “The conversations are destined to fail and collapse.” 12 percent chose, “The conversations will reach a formulation for a peace agreement.”
The Economist expressed guarded optimism about the talks, but noted that “Hamas is still absent from the table. This means that half of the Palestinian movement would not be party to any deal and will try hard to sabotage one.”
The campaign in behalf of the soldier held captive in Gaza also suggests that the Israeli population is more skeptical than optimistic. There were several days of paid commercials urging people to attend a rally in Jerusalem to mark his fifth birthday in captivity, and organizers hired 70 buses to bring people from all parts of the country. One media report noted that hundreds appeared, several mentioned thousands, and one estimated 6,000. The Israeli metric for a serious demonstration begins at 100,000.
Shalit’s mother used her speech at the rally to call on Sara Netanyahu, recently featured as asking her husband not to deport 400 children of illegal immigrants, to show similar concern for Gilad. Sara responded with a comment that her heart went out to the Shalit family, and that the prime minister worked hard to secure his release. The prime minister has indicated repeatedly that Israel would not pay the price demanded by Hamas as long as it included the release of terrorists likely to engage in further violence if set free.
A back bench member of Knesset expressed the hope that the prime minister would raise the issue of Shalit as part of the peace negotiations with the Palestinians. The journalist interviewing her noted that Shalit was held by Palestinians who opposed the peace process. The MK’s response was something like, “I guess that is a problem.”
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University