Iranian exile anticipates demise of Ahmadinejad regime by year’s end

 HAIFA, Israel (Press Release)–An exiled Iranian theater director, Dr. Mahmood Karimi-Hakak has been visiting Israel this week. At a lecture that he gave for the Ezri Center for Iran and Persian Gulf Studies at the University of Haifa, he said: “If the situation remains as it is today, by the end of 2010 the regime in Iran will be replaced.”

Dr. Karimi-Hakak, who has been teaching at universities in the U.S. over the past few years, left Iran when he came under investigation for a Shakespeare play that he produced without approval. Against the backdrop of deteriorating relations between the Iranian regime and Israel, Dr. Karimi-Hakak demonstrates the gap between the Iranian people and its leaders as he is currently visiting Israel thanks to a fellowship that he was awarded by the Fulbright foundation and intends to teach in the Israeli academia.

“The Green Movement in Iran has no ‘director’,” he said. “Unlike other movements in history, this is the first time that the people are driving leaders and not the leaders driving the people. As such, all the movement’s activities relate to at least two of the three leaders – Mousavi, Karroubi or Khatami. This way, none of them will become too pivotal after the fall of the regime,” he said.

Dr. Karimi-Hakak believes that the West does not need to become directly involved in the struggles between the protestors and the government, but could assist in roundabout ways, such as limiting the mobility of Iranian leaders, freezing bank accounts, and the like. As for Israeli intervention, he claimed that any such involvement would only jeopardize the possibility of changing the government. “Immediately after the Islamic Revolution, Khomeini targeted the United States as an enemy, and that united the Iranian people. Then Iraq became the enemy that united the population. I am convinced that the heads of government in Iran pray every day for an Israeli attack that would reunite the people against an external enemy. Therefore, I implore that you not intervene.”
The Iranian-born guest also related to the massive demonstrations in support of Iran’s President Ahmadinejad that have been taking place recently.

“About 15% of the citizens of Iran are true supporters of a religious government or are happy with the government’s economy. A similar percentage are state employees who are duty-bound to join these demonstrations and would otherwise lose their jobs. Another 5-10% are prisoners, drug addicts, prostitutes, and the like, who have accepted bargain deals to join the demonstrations in return for reduced sentences. This way, tens of thousands of people assemble to demonstrate support for Ahmedinajad,” he concluded.
 
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Preceding provided by University of Haifa